Home / The evidence / Small boats
Consequence
One of the country's most searched frustrations, and a clear worked example of the argument on this site.
People were first recorded crossing the Channel in small boats at scale in 2018, when 299 arrived. Numbers rose fast, peaking at around 46,000 in 2022, and reached about 41,000 in 2025. More than 180,000 people have arrived by this route since 2018. Crossings fell through the first part of 2026, though the causes of that fall are disputed.
The harder problem is not arrivals but returns. Of everyone who has arrived since 2018, only around 4% have been removed. Many claims take years to resolve, and removals are frequently blocked by legal challenge, often under Article 8 of the European Convention on the right to family life, brought through the Human Rights Act. This is the mechanism the thesis points to: a policy voters back repeatedly, stopped in the courts.
The clearest worked example is the Rwanda scheme, announced in 2022, blocked by the courts, and scrapped in 2024 with nobody removed. The full timeline is on the Rwanda page, and the wider question of the treaty behind it is on should the UK leave the ECHR.
The National Audit Office estimated in 2025 that the asylum system is likely to cost more than £15bn over ten years, much of it on accommodation. The figures, with their disputes, sit on the evidence page.
Crossings falling in 2026 complicates any simple story. Supporters of leaving the Convention say the legal blocks are the binding constraint. Critics say the backlog is mostly caused by domestic administration and that French enforcement and smuggling economics drive the numbers more than Strasbourg does. Both can be partly true.
Sources
House of Commons Library and the Migration Observatory on crossing numbers, and the National Audit Office on cost. Fuller figures and links are on the evidence page.
About 41,000 arrived in 2025, after a peak of around 46,000 in 2022. More than 180,000 have arrived since 2018, though numbers fell in early 2026.
Only around 4% of arrivals since 2018 have been removed. Claims take years, and removals are often blocked by legal challenge, frequently under the Human Rights Act.
Supporters say it would remove a key legal block. Critics say the backlog is mainly a domestic administrative problem. See should the UK leave the ECHR.
